China’s Quantum Leap – How Beijing Is Closing the Technology Gap with the U.S.
In a quiet but seismic shift in global technology, China is rapidly closing the quantum-technology gap with the United States—and might overtake it sooner than many expect. According to a recent column by Catherine Thorbecke for Bloomberg LP, while the U.S. still holds a lead, China’s surge in patent filings and strategic investment in quantum computing, sensing and communications means it could challenge — or even surpass — U.S. dominance in this sector as early as 2027. (Bloomberg)
The Race You’ve Not Heard Enough About
Most of the technology headlines focus on artificial intelligence, cloud computing or semiconductors. But the quantum technology race—the science and engineering of devices that exploit superposition, entanglement and other quantum-mechanical phenomena—is arguably just as consequential, albeit quieter. Thorbecke explains: think of solving a maze not by trying one path at a time, but by exploring all possible paths simultaneously. (Bloomberg) The implications are vast: from unbreakable encryption and ultra-sensitive sensors to dramatic leaps in computing speed for certain types of problems.
McKinsey estimates the quantum-technology market could reach up to US$97 billion by 2035. (Bloomberg)
What China Is Doing—and How It’s Gaining Ground
Here are three vectors through which China is strengthening its position:
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Patent Momentum China’s organisations are filing quantum-technology patents at an accelerating pace. Some analyses suggest China could surpass the U.S. patent portfolio in quantum technologies by 2027. (CNA)
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State-led Strategy & Scale As commentators note, China’s innovation push leverages state coordination, strategic five-year plans and large-scale investment to “close the technology gap.” (USCC) While China may still trail in certain hardware breakthroughs, the combination of public and private effort—and sheer scale—gives it momentum.
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Broad Platform: Computing, Sensing & Communications It’s not just quantum computing: China is also a leader in quantum communication and sensing technologies. According to a report from the MERICS think-tank, China leads globally in quantum-communication patents and publishes more quantum-technology papers than any other country in many years. (MERICS)
Why This Matters — For Tech, Security and Global Power
The implications are substantial:
- Technology Leadership & Economic Potential: If quantum computing becomes commercially viable for certain tasks—say optimisation, materials simulation or cryptanalysis—the country with the lead could capture large swaths of value-creation, from finance to energy to defence.
- National Security & Cryptography: Quantum tech threatens encryption methods that underpin the internet, governments and financial systems. The article warns of a “critical new front” in the tech rivalry. (CNA)
- Geopolitical Influence: Technology leadership equals soft power and strategic advantage. If China narrows or overtakes the U.S. edge in quantum, it alters the balance of innovation and influence. Analysts already point to shifting patterns of global technological leadership. (USCC)
But It’s Not All Smooth Sailing
China’s rise in quantum tech does come with caveats:
- Despite rapid gains in patents and publications, the deep theoretical or hardware-level breakthroughs (especially in fault-tolerant quantum computing) still largely derive from Western labs and firms. (MERICS)
- Export controls, restrictions on advanced tools, and some structural inefficiencies in innovation remain hurdles for China. (RAND Corporation)
- Commercialisation and ecosystem building (start-ups, venture funding, global deployment) still favour the U.S. and its allies, at least for now.
What to Watch Next
- Patent-filing trends and quantum-technology IP portfolios over the next 1-3 years.
- Major hardware milestones—such as error-corrected quantum computers, large-scale quantum networks or commercially viable quantum sensors.
- Policy responses in the U.S. and other countries: increased funding, export controls, public-private programmes and international alliances.
- Whether quantum tech begins to appear in broader commercial use cases (finance, materials, communications) and not just labs.
Glossary
- Quantum technology: Technologies that exploit quantum-mechanical phenomena (such as superposition and entanglement) to perform tasks that classical technologies cannot or would do far less efficiently.
- Quantum computer: A device that uses qubits (quantum bits) instead of classical bits, enabling certain computations to explore many possibilities simultaneously.
- Quantum communication: Methods of transmitting information using quantum states, often with enhanced security properties (e.g., quantum key distribution).
- Patent portfolio: A collection of patents held by an entity (organisation or country), often used as a gauge of innovation strength or competitive position.
- Fault-tolerant quantum computing: A quantum computer architecture that can correct for errors in qubit operations, allowing scale-up to many logical qubits and widespread useful applications.
As China presses ahead in quantum technology, what once seemed a decades-away contest is accelerating. For firms, governments and researchers, the question is no longer if quantum matters—it’s who will lead it, and when. Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-23/china-is-closing-the-quantum-technology-gap?srnd=homepage-asia
